Setting Expectations - Economic Indicators Series

Episode 1: Pilot

Why I’m Writing This Series

If your feed has been anything like mine, the last few weeks have been filled with videos about the inflation of currency, the AI bubble, government debt spirals, and finance bros trying to convince you that the economy is either on the verge of collapse, or about to enter a golden age. Every video had a new prediction, overlaid with graphs and analysis of what various indicators have to say. Overall, we weren’t really missing data, we were missing unbiased context.

This series exists because modern economic discourse increasingly treats statistics as proof of entire narratives. Inflation is cited without prices. Debt is discussed without GDP. Unemployment is invoked without considering fiscal capacity. Complex systems are reduced to viral charts designed to provoke certainty rather than understanding.

Why This Series Exists

For most people, the economy is experienced emotionally before it is understood analytically. Rent “feels” higher, Healthcare often “feels” unaffordable, Job security “feels” nonexistent, and this list goes on and on. Then we have the other side, where explanations often jump to the numbers without explaining how those numbers interact, making these explanations inaccessible to the average person.

This series is meant to bridge the gap that has been created between the average person, and the finance-bro's on youtube.

Each post will focus on:

• What the indicator actually measures

• How it behaves across different moments in history

• What it can and can't tell us about economic health

But, above all, this is not a series about predicting the future. This series was developed in order to spread understanding of which parts of the economy move slowly and which react violently when stress hits, and what this means for you.

What This Series Is Not

• This series is not a partisan argument

• This series is not a forecast blog

• This series is not a collection of viral charts without explanation

This series's main goal is not to persuade the reader, you, into a certain belief. It is, however, to give the readers the tools and knowledge to form their own educated opinions on the topic

How the Analysis Is Structured

(stats for nerds cus' why not)

For readers interested in the more nitty gritty of the data:

1.Data set is collected from 1970–2023

Which would include the following financial eras:

• Stagflation

• The Great Moderation

• The Global Financial Crisis

• Post-GFC expansion

• The COVID-19 Recession

2. Cross Indicator Relationships

Since Indicators should not be analyzed in isolation, this series will examine:

• Correlation between indicators through the different time periods

• Directional shifts in relationships 

• Out of norm trends

These allows us to see when “rules of thumb” stop applying as well as indications that things might be taking a turn for the worse.

Aim to save three to six months’ worth of living expenses. This amount will provide a cushion during financial emergencies.

Why This Matters Now

Times of uncertainty increase the amount of bad explanations which the people see. When people feel economic pressure, they are more likely to accept information that's been delivered confidently but is incomplete, false, and has a certain goal of persuasion behind it.

Understanding the economy requires context and a educated understanding about what numbers can and cannot say.

That is what this series aims to provide.

Looking forward to the first article?

Here's a little schedule:

Publishing Schedule

Posts will be published once every few weeks, each focusing on a single indicator or tightly defined relationship.

Planned topics include:

• Debt-to-GDP across different eras

• Inflation vs. cost of living

• Government spending and national debt growth

• Unemployment as a fundamentally unpredictable variable

• Healthcare spending as a crisis-response indicator

• Which economic variables can actually be forecast—and which cannot

Each post will be split into:

• A qualitative section for general readers

• A quantitative(stats for nerds) section for those who want to see the math, diagnostics, and assumptions

Tentative Next post: Debt and Unemployment (feat. The Stagflation Era)