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When the economy gets worse, most prices fall. Restaurants run specials, Airlines drop fares, Retailers slash inventory, Businesses cut prices to stay competitive, and Workers accept lower wages to keep their jobs. That's how recessions are supposed to work. But not healthcare. Healthcare gets more expensive when the economy gets worse almost every year, no matter what. That should strike you as odd. Healthcare is a service, and Services should follow normal supply and demand

Federal spending in 2019, in real 2023 dollars was about $5.7 trillion, and in 2020 it was about $7 trillion. Today, it's still around $6.7 trillion. Notice what didn't happen? It didn't come back down. This is federal spending in America since 1970. And what you're looking at is more of a ratchet than a growth in spending that can come down in the future. Federal spending in America has one direction. Up. Like the cost of living, but with bigger numbers and bigger consequenc

There's a misconception about inflation that almost everyone has, and it quietly costs them money. When the news says "inflation is coming down," most people think "prices are coming down." But the truth is they aren't. They're going up slower. That distinction is the difference between thinking the economy is recovering and understanding that the new prices are permanent. Because in modern America, prices almost never come back down, Not after the dot-com bust. Not after 200

I want to show you something Two lines. Blue is what the U.S. government owes, measured against what the country actually produces. Red is the percentage of Americans who can't find work, even though they're trying. Watch them. Notice anything weird? In the 1970s, they move in opposite directions. By the 2000s, they're moving together. Something fundamental changed in how this country runs its economy and most people have no idea. Let me walk you through it. First, what are w

Setting expectations - Economic Indicators series